conventional wisdom scenarios alternative futures

Why conventional wisdom is dangerous and crazy scenarios aren’t

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

I have been processing the madness and fury of the outhouse fire known as the Trump Presidential Transition through a series of unplanned (unhinged?) rants on Twitter (Original from December 11 and Extra Crispy from December 29) in which I examine how American politics got to this weird place and where we’re headed in the immediate future. The situation is extremely …

Garry Trudeau Donald Trump 1999

Garry Trudeau’s 1999 political scenario for a Trump campaign

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis, Political Trends 2 Comments

One powerful technique in futures studies to get people to think about potential scenarios is the “future news headlines” game. For example: 2024: Ireland rolls tanks into London 2020: Cash officially outlawed in the United States 2030: Soylent Citizens program assists with healthcare budget crisis Yeah, the last one is nice and creepy. But that’s the point, to send you …

US election scenario

Nate Silver adds in the missing element in election scenarios

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis, Political Trends Leave a Comment

Last week I cast a minor amount of shade on some of the election forecast methodology at FiveThirtyEight. I said that I appreciated the quantitative elements, but doubted the precision without a more narrative, qualitative approach to compliment what the numbers really meant. Yeah, this was not a vicious professional critique. As one friend said, “You could still get a …

election forecasts 538 nate silver

Why most election forecasts are missing a key predictive element

Michael St. James Futures Studies, Political Trends Leave a Comment

We’re less than 100 days away from the U.S. general election. This is the Christmas, Passover, Ramadan, and Shark Week for political junkies around the world. Now is that magical time of the year when D.C. dorks and beyond start slavering over the latest poll data. Election forecasts become a mix of news item and religious talisman to be regarded, …