Disinformation Trump Russia campaign

Trump-Russia, Disinformation, and the Four-Day Panic Rule

Eric Garland Geopolitical Trends Leave a Comment

Based on my mission (Codename: GRINGO11) to collect and analyze the interaction between Trump-Russia headlines and the publishers of disinformation about geopolitical analysts getting the story of the century correct, here’s another pattern analysis: The Four-Day Panic Rule. It took a historic disinformation campaign to create the chaotic narrative around the Trump “victory.” And a very intense one to cover up …

My popular keynote on the future of risk

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

This recent video at the Casualty Actuarial Society‘s annual meeting shows my keynote on the future of risk and foresight. As the world grapples with traumatic leadership decisions (Trump, Brexit, etc) it seems a good time to revisit our assumptions on how to manage uncertainty. This keynote starts with the history of foresight – why we crave it, yet lack …

technology trends strategic intelligence

How sensor tech, big data, and advanced algorithms will drive strategic intelligence

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis, Technology Trends 3 Comments

In Why Software Will Never Replace Strategic Analysts, I laid down a theme I’ll be covering in my closing keynote for the Business Forecasting and Analytics Forum in Chicago on September 20: That data and information may belong to computers, but that knowledge, wisdom, and leadership will remain a uniquely human endeavor. Some took this to mean that I didn’t think …

cognitive bias

Cognitive bias, intelligence, and Operation Iraqi Freedom

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis

In my new training course How to Avoid Strategic Mind Traps, I examine the role of cognitive bias in distorting out view of the future. The course explores social biases, memory biases, decision-making biases, and probability biases and their effect on intuiting potential scenarios, the first step in properly planning for what’s next. For a case study, I have chosen …