One more reason early warning intelligence doesn’t work

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 2 Comments

Intelligence and futures studies and allied fields prattle on about the need for “weak signals,” “early warning,” and the ability to “expect the unexpected.” Almost nobody has dealt with the fact that, from the lack of WMD in Iraq to the collapse of the housing market, to the inability of Greece to pay back its bonds, we get all kinds …

Linkfest: Keeping watch over a Europe on the brink

Eric Garland Uncategorized Leave a Comment

Here in Saint Louis, MO, all seems peaceful. People are a touch on edge, but that is primarily over Game 3 of the post-season, with the Cardinals slugging it out with the Milwaukee Brewers, each team trading basketball game scores in bruising beat-downs! Then, checking the Internetwebz, I see that the Europe-banking-Greece thing, which I’ve been talking about for years …

Michael Lewis: banks will take a 90% haircut on Greek debt

Eric Garland Uncategorized Leave a Comment

It seems that the revaluation of Greek debt is not likely to be incremental. To say the least. Michael Lewis, financial author extraordinaire, gives an interview to Reuters in which he predicts a 90% haircut. Given the degree to which Société Générale, Deutsche Bank and others are up to their eyes in Greek paper, we’re looking at a fairly significant …

European scenario time: will we see a return of the deutschmark and drachma?

Eric Garland Uncategorized Leave a Comment

Max Keiser throws down, and using sourcing from the board of directors of Deutsche Bank, tells us that Greece’s default is imminent, and that we will not only see the return of the drachma, but also the deutschmark! Fun fact of the whole program: Greece has been in some sort of default 50.6% of the time…SINCE 1800.  

Greeks return to barter and local currencies in the wake of crisis

Eric Garland Currency Trends Leave a Comment

If you tell people that The System is totally broken and there are no jobs and everybody is in debt and sorry, nothing can be done, they can either revolt or simply walk away. We know what revolt looks like – Tahrir Square, Occupy Wall Street, Tiananmen Square and such. But walking away looks even more interesting. The New York …