future foresight analytics

More thoughts on the future of foresight

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

Today I find myself in San Francisco, CA for JPK Group Summits’ Business Forecasting and Analytics Summit. My keynote this morning was entitled The Future of Forecasting (slides below), and in it I explore the balance between our innate desires to predict the future, emerging technologies, and human behavior. It’s not the first time I’ve given this speech, but the …

Garry Trudeau Donald Trump 1999

Garry Trudeau’s 1999 political scenario for a Trump campaign

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis, Political Trends 2 Comments

One powerful technique in futures studies to get people to think about potential scenarios is the “future news headlines” game. For example: 2024: Ireland rolls tanks into London 2020: Cash officially outlawed in the United States 2030: Soylent Citizens program assists with healthcare budget crisis Yeah, the last one is nice and creepy. But that’s the point, to send you …

future intelligence analysts

Why software will never replace intelligence analysts

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

I’m excited to be speaking at the Business Forecasting and Analytics Summit in Chicago on September 21. My closing keynote is “The Future of Forecasting” and, in it I’m going to explore one of the biggest trends to impact the field: the relationship between man and machine, or more specifically, intelligence analysts and software packages. I am bullish about the …

election forecasts 538 nate silver

Why most election forecasts are missing a key predictive element

Michael St. James Futures Studies, Political Trends Leave a Comment

We’re less than 100 days away from the U.S. general election. This is the Christmas, Passover, Ramadan, and Shark Week for political junkies around the world. Now is that magical time of the year when D.C. dorks and beyond start slavering over the latest poll data. Election forecasts become a mix of news item and religious talisman to be regarded, …