technology foresight from Back to the Future

Back to the Future, a technology foresight handbook

Eric Garland Culture Trends, Futures Studies, Technology Trends Leave a Comment

Sometimes, artists do a better job at futurism than non-fiction thinkers. I maintain, for example, that the best books on the subject of technology foresight happen to be fiction novels. James Halperin’s two books The Truth Machine and The First Immortal are genius works of futurism, exploring in extraordinary depth the implications of two different technologies: a Google Glass-like device …

Windows vs iOs shipments 2011-2014

Microsoft forecast disruption from mobile, got disrupted anyhow

Eric Garland Business Trends, Technology Trends 1 Comment

This chart from top Apple analysts Asymco shows that it is not enough to predict the future – you have to take actions that matter. Otherwise, you will be acting after you have been disrupted. The curious thing about disruption is that predictability does not result in immunity. If the new trajectory threatens the current profit formula, the trajectory is …

The case for an Internet ratings system

Eric Garland Technology Trends 29 Comments

As an intellectual worker, the citizen of a free republic, and an all-around sentient human who prefers incisive, useful information to vulgar, senseless tripe, I would like to make a modest proposal. After a prolonged assault by the nonsensical, the vicious, and the trivial in my online interactions of late, I long for the construction of a two-tiered Internet ratings …

Baby Boomers, the future you were promised has arrived

Eric Garland Futures Studies, Technology Trends 1 Comment

Whether I’m speaking on the road as a keynote speaker or consulting in a company or hanging out at a cocktail party, the moment I say that I study future trends, there is a high likelihood that somebody born between 1946 and 1964 who will take me to task: This has annoyed me for years, since I never personally promised …