US election scenario

Nate Silver adds in the missing element in election scenarios

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis, Political Trends Leave a Comment

Last week I cast a minor amount of shade on some of the election forecast methodology at FiveThirtyEight. I said that I appreciated the quantitative elements, but doubted the precision without a more narrative, qualitative approach to compliment what the numbers really meant. Yeah, this was not a vicious professional critique. As one friend said, “You could still get a …

election forecasts 538 nate silver

Why most election forecasts are missing a key predictive element

Michael St. James Futures Studies, Political Trends Leave a Comment

We’re less than 100 days away from the U.S. general election. This is the Christmas, Passover, Ramadan, and Shark Week for political junkies around the world. Now is that magical time of the year when D.C. dorks and beyond start slavering over the latest poll data. Election forecasts become a mix of news item and religious talisman to be regarded, …

obama dnc speech

Obama just stole from Reagan and succeeded wildly

Eric Garland Political Trends 2 Comments

Obama’s speech was a strategic masterwork, framing the 2016 presidential election and perhaps the next generation of political power for future Democratic dominance, all while Donald Trump kept sputtering about how Russian intel should break into our stuff. With an affable, inspirational tone, Obama grabbed massive swaths of political strategic territory from the Republican party, territory that it took the …

trainwreck

The deeper catastrophe of a Trump convention

Eric Garland Political Trends Leave a Comment

By this point in a campaign year, the groaning gears of the American political engine are usually picking up velocity. Yup, from coast to coast, we get ready to engage in our bacchanalia of brainless TV ads, get-tough-on-crime rhetoric, proposals to make healthcare free and wonderful, not to mention the same old promises to “create” or “bring back” or “magically …