conventional wisdom scenarios alternative futures

Why conventional wisdom is dangerous and crazy scenarios aren’t

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

I have been processing the madness and fury of the outhouse fire known as the Trump Presidential Transition through a series of unplanned (unhinged?)¬†rants on Twitter (Original from December 11 and Extra Crispy from December 29) in which I examine how American politics got to this weird place and where we’re headed in the immediate future. The situation is extremely …

Political trends

Trump shows why political trends belong in strategic scenarios

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

Political trends, unless you do business in an unstable environment such as Central Asia or South America, are frequently considered outside the purview of most business strategists. Moreover, when those strategists make scenarios to guide the decisions of executives, they might include economic and tech trends, while eschewing the rest. Well, after this Trump thing, I hope strategic intelligence professionals …

Slides from my webinar on cognitive bias and intelligence

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

A video of the whole event is to follow, but in the meantime here are the slides from my webinar today for the Intelligence Collaborative and my colleagues at AuroraWDC. I have been increasingly interested in the role that cognitive bias plays in decision making, and believe that the next level of achievement for intelligence as a discipline and for …