cognitive bias

New forms of cognitive bias, 2017 edition

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 5 Comments

As I grow as an intelligence analyst and adviser, my interests increasingly tend toward the human factors in analysis, especially cognitive bias. I have recently done a series of workshops on cognitive bias because while it’s great to know how to do foresight and scenarios, it’s even more important to know how we screw it up. There are four main …

intelligence national security

How grownups discuss national security and intelligence

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

We live in a moment when the President of the United States’ “strategist,” a febrile neo-Nazi website publisher, has re-configured the National Security Council such that he’s on it and the Director of National Intelligence and the Joint Chief of Staff are no longer permanent members. We live in a moment when a sitting U.S. president refers to intelligence reports …

intelligence analysis basics

Intelligence analysis basics – how data becomes actionable insight

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 2 Comments

I recently explored some of the basics of the U.S. intelligence community, its agencies, and how they arrive at conclusions on behalf of decision makers. Because of the sheer volume of credible allegations of espionage on behalf of the President-Elect of the United States, much of the news will involve information released by intelligence agencies. It is important for Americans …

intelligence analysis trump russia

The intelligence analysis process is on display with Trump’s Russian affair

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 2 Comments

We are living through an unprecedented historical event in which the President-Elect of the United States has been elected, according to American intelligence agencies, with the help of an elaborate influence operation conducted by Russia. What’s more, intelligence services in NATO countries have expressed concern about Russia having¬†kompromat, or compromising information for blackmail, over the President-Elect. There is more information …