future of risk analysis

The future of risk analysis in a complex world

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

I’m excited to be just back from Toronto where I spoke to the Casualty Actuarial Society on a new topic I’ve been working on – the future of forecasting and risk analysis. The major trend drivers are increasing interconnectedness and complexity, mass collection of new datasets, and artificial intelligence to help us ask better questions. The Future of Risk Analysis …

future foresight analytics

More thoughts on the future of foresight

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis Leave a Comment

Today I find myself in San Francisco, CA for JPK Group Summits’ Business Forecasting and Analytics Summit. My keynote this morning was entitled The Future of Forecasting (slides below), and in it I explore the balance between our innate desires to predict the future, emerging technologies, and human behavior. It’s not the first time I’ve given this speech, but the …

cognitive bias

New forms of cognitive bias, 2017 edition

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 5 Comments

As I grow as an intelligence analyst and adviser, my interests increasingly tend toward the human factors in analysis, especially cognitive bias. I have recently done a series of workshops on cognitive bias because while it’s great to know how to do foresight and scenarios, it’s even more important to know how we screw it up. There are four main …