future foresight analytics

More thoughts on the future of foresight

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 0 Comments

Today I find myself in San Francisco, CA for JPK Group Summits’ Business Forecasting and Analytics Summit. My keynote this morning was entitled The Future of Forecasting (slides below), and in it I explore the balance between our innate desires to predict the future, emerging technologies, and human behavior. It’s not the first time I’ve given this speech, but the …

cognitive bias

New forms of cognitive bias, 2017 edition

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 5 Comments

As I grow as an intelligence analyst and adviser, my interests increasingly tend toward the human factors in analysis, especially cognitive bias. I have recently done a series of workshops on cognitive bias because while it’s great to know how to do foresight and scenarios, it’s even more important to know how we screw it up. There are four main …

intelligence national security

How grownups discuss national security and intelligence

Eric Garland Intelligence Analysis 0 Comments

We live in a moment when the President of the United States’ “strategist,” a febrile neo-Nazi website publisher, has re-configured the National Security Council such that he’s on it and the Director of National Intelligence and the Joint Chief of Staff are no longer permanent members. We live in a moment when a sitting U.S. president refers to intelligence reports …