This piece from Intersection magazine has a very sharp realpolitik view of Russia’s friction with the West. Most thinkers are probably underestimating the impact that Russia could have on the tenuous geopolitical order, especially in Europe.
Two years after invading Ukraine, efforts in the U.S. to devise and implement an information policy against Russia’s incessant information war have come to nothing because of governmental opposition. Although some efforts are underway in Europe, the scale of what is needed, both to educate European publics about the realities of world politics and global economics is clearly lacking as Brexit shows. Likewise, little or no effort can be seen here to take measures to enhance our expertise on the Russian military and on Russia in general. Consequently, our intelligence agencies, armed forces, and governments are surprised regularly when Russia acts in ways that are predictable to real experts. There are still too many quarters who believe that a proper assessment of Russian military capabilities and the threats it poses to Europe and Russia’s neighbors is alarmist or inflating the threat when these same sources clearly have failed to grasp what is happening.